A “catastrophe market” is a special type of prediction market where users gamble on tragic events, such as a natural disaster or a politically unstable situation. Users trade ""yes"" or ""no"" shares to bet on the outcome or severity of an event. An example of a public catastrophe market platform is Polymarket. By mid-January 2025 during the Los Angeles wildfire crisis, bets on the wildfires' spread, duration, and fallout on Polymarket were up to 1.2 million USD